Inflation in Vietnam in the period 2007-2017: fluctuation trends, impact factors and prediction

Abstract

    Inflation is understood as the continuous increase in the general price of goods and services over time. This is a macroeconomic phenomenon that may cause instability for the economy therefore, inflation has always been monitored and strictly controlled by the Government. The study, considering the fluctuation of inflation and the factors impact on inflation are also concerned by researchers and policy makers in and outside the country. The article of the research team is part of the results in the framework of the research topic: "Application of vector self-regression model (VAR) to analyze and forecast inflation in Vietnam", code CT 2018: 05 -51.Based on the data collected, the research team synthesize the fluctuation of inflation in Vietnam in the period 2007 – 2017; at the same time analyze and point out the factors that impact on inflation in Vietnam during this period.In addition, the research team used the Holt-Winter model to forecast inflation in Vietnam for the period 2018-2021, from which, suggest some macro-level implications for controlling inflation in Vietnam in the coming time.