Dự báo lũ bằng phương pháp chi tiết hóa động lực kết hợp với mô hình thủy văn vật lý thực áp dụng cho lưu vực sông Vu Gia - Thu Bồn

Abstract

In this study, a coupling dynamical downscaling and hydrological models was used to forecast flood in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon area with the input data taken from two global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models GFS and GSM. The global meteorological data were downscaled by means of the WRF model. The downscaled results have been calibrated and validated by two different observation data including the Vietnam Gridded Precipitation (VnGP) dataset, and gauged-rainfall data from the Vietnam Center of Hydro-Meteorological Data (VCHMD). The downscaled GFS and GSM data are then used as input for the WEHY model. The WEHY forecast simulation results of 1, 2, 3 days were calibrated and validated based on the corresponding observation data, and the results show that the simulation are quite similar and close to the observation values. Overall, the flood forecast result are reliable for 1 ahead, while the 2- and 3-day flood forecast are required to improve further by data assimilation methods