Mô hình hóa mưa độ phân giải cao kết hợp giữa mô hình động lực khí tượng và phương pháp thống kê: Áp dụng cho lưu vực sông Sài Gòn - Đồng Nai

Abstract

The modeling of large rainfall events play an important role in water resources management. In this study, a blended technique combining dynamical and statistical approaches has been explored. The proposed downscaling technology uses input provided from three different global reanalysis data including ERA-Interim, ERA20C, and CFSR. These reanalysis atmospheric data are downscaled by means of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model followed by the application of a statistical method to improve accuracy and further downscale high resolution (9km) over the studied basin. Simulations of all three data sets have good reliability and reach the statistical indicators that can be provided as inputs of the hydrological and environmental models. Among the three selected reanalysis datasets, the best calibration and validation results were obtained from the ERA-Interim dataset.