Nghiên cứu đánh giá dòng chảy mùa cạn trên lưu vực sông Vu Gia - Thu Bồn dưới tác động của biến đổi khí hậu

Abstract

Water resources is the most directly affected by climate change. Heavy rain events occur more frequently in rainy season while rainfall decreases in dry season. These changes enlarge the discrepancy in total flow between the flood and dry seasons. The extreme flow events appear more frequently and severely. Especially, the flow reduction in dry season will influence the water supply capacity and water quality in river basins. Therefore, the quantification of climate change impact on low flow is necessary for water resources management. The effects of climate change on seasonal flow and extreme low flow are evaluated for Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin by simulating 22 climate model runs corresponding to emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results indicate that the annual flow increases. However, the total flow in dry reason decreases approximately 30% at Nong Son station and 10% at Thanh My station. The average extreme low flow decreases about 54% at Nong Son station and 55% at Thanh My station.    

Keywords: Climate change, Vu Gia – Thu Bon, flow, dry season...