Dự báo mưa trên lưu vực hồ Dầu Tiếng từ tài liệu dự báo thời tiết toàn cầu phục vụ dự báo dòng chảy lũ đến và điều tiết hồ trong mùa lũ

Abstract

One of the causes of flooding in the downstream area of Dau Tieng reservoir is the downstream flood discharge to ensure reservoir safety in the rainy season. After nearly 40 years of Dau Tieng reservoir operation, there are many studies on flood simulation and forecasting flood flow to the reservoir and proposing solutions for properly reservoir regulation in order to minimize the flood discharge downstream and mitigate downstream flooding, especially in Ho Chi Minh City area.

The article summarizes the assessment of rainfall forecast ability of various models in the world from the scientific research project KC08.07/16-20 "Research and propose solutions to improve water use efficiency, ensure the safety of main works and downstream Dau Tieng reservoir in the conditions of climate change and extreme weather. This study reviewed various meteorological prediction models in the world and applied to forecast rainfall in the Dau Tieng reservoir basin. The results from the application of rainfall forecast for the tropical depression in November 2018 and compare with rainfall monitoring data in the basin initially showed that ECMWF model (European Central Medium-term Weather Forecast) is capable of good forecasting average daily rainfall prior 3-4 days before tropical depression event. Initial results allow forecasting flood flow to the reservoir and serve for effective flood regulation and mitigation downstream flooding of Dau Tieng reservoir.