ĐÁNH GIÁ XÂM NHẬP MẶN PHỤC VỤ CẤP NƯỚC SẢN XUẤT NÔNG NGHIỆP VỤ ĐÔNG XUÂN VÙNG VEN BIỂN ĐỒNG BẰNG SÔNG HỒNG DƯỚI TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU

Abstract

In the Red river delta, the upstream region has high elevation therefore the ability to take water from Red river for agricultural depends only on the river’s water level. Meanwhile, in the downstream near coastal area, water intake for agricultural depends on tide condition and upstream reservoir’s discharge which can push salt water back to the sea so that the salt concentration at the intake must be smaller than 1 ppt. However, under the impact of climate change and sea level rise, during dry season, water level in most of the rivers show increasing trend. In order to make long term planning and take water for agricultural production, it is very important to predict the occurrence of saline intrusion in the downstream of Red - Thai Binh river network. This study presents the simulation and forecasting results of saline intrusion including and magnitude and length of intrusion along the main rivers in the studied region up to 2050. These results are important input for proposing water management plans and cope with saline intrusion in the coastal area of the Red river delta.