Trend and forecast the saline intrusion at estuaries in the coastal Mekong delta: A case study of the coastal sub–region between the Tien and Hau rivers

Tóm tắt

Saline intrusion is a big challenge for the Mekong Delta region, a negative factor that greatly affects water and food security. In particular, the most severely affected areas are the coastal sub–regions between the Tien and Hau rivers in the lower Mekong basin, which are directly influenced by the tidal regime. In the dry season, the salinity changes complicatedly from year to year. It is necessary to analyze and assess the trend and forecast of saltwater intrusion in 2 main tributaries. In this paper, the study are used Mann–Kendall non–parametric testing method, Sen's slope estimator test, and the MIKE 11 model (HD+AD). The results are evaluated based on statistical analysis at the significance level α < 0.1 (probability of making type I error is 10%), ensuring the exclusion of extremely unstable values to the trend, the selecting the station that is qualified to calculate the Sen’s slope tr Sen’s slope trend will represent a typical regional saline intrusion regime feature. At the same time, the article also gives the results of forecasting the level of saline intrusion at a few main stations on the two tributaries of the Tien and Hau rivers in 2022.