An Integrated Framework for Assessing Climate Risks to Population Sustainability: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

  • Minh Hoa Nguyen Thi
  • Phu Bao Nguyen
  • Hong Nhat Pham
  • Tuan Anh Ha
  • That Lang Ton
Từ khóa: Sustainable development assessment; Population sustainability; Sustainable development index; Climate change; Ho Chi Minh City.

Tóm tắt

Global warming is a serious and urgent issue facing the world today to achieving sustainable development, and it threatens to reverse millions of people into poverty. In this work, a simple and pragmatic framework for assessing the impact of climate change on sustainable development at local scale was reported according to the three–pillar conception of social, economic and environmental sustainability. In detail, the research has assessed the climate effects on sustainable development of population in the south of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), which is subdivided into five district–level subdivisions (District 7, District 8, Binh Tan District, Binh Chanh District, and Nha Be District) and each district possesses its own unique properties of natural resources and society. The average population growth rate of all five districts from 2005 to 2014 was approximately 5.17%, which was around two times higher than that of HCMC, at 2.97%. To the south of HCMC is a lowland area with an elevation of 0.8–1.5 m, as compared to that of HCMC. Also, the population growth rate in five districts was unsustainable under the influence of climate risks, with the sustainable development index of 0.280 ÷ 0.305. In conclusion, the negative impacts of population growth affected by climate fluctuations in the southern part of HCMC may lead to potential consequences of population size and structure such as migration, poverty and family disruption.

điểm /   đánh giá
Phát hành ngày
2022-04-22