STUDYING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INTO SALT INTRUSION IN THE MEKONG RIVER DELTA, CASE STUDY IN BEN TRE PROVINCE

Abstract

The Mekong Delta is currently the region where the most affected by saline intrusion due to climate change. In the dry season of 2016, the saline intrusion in Mekong delta is evaluated which the most seriously during the century and continuously worse happening as predicted. In the paper, we use MIKE 11 hydraulic model to simulate the process of saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta. Climate change and sea level rise scenarios (updated version 2016) of Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment are used for research. The results show that salinity intrusion in most rivers in the Mekong Delta will tend to increase in the future. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, the area affected by salinity intrusion corresponding to the salinity 4‰ is about 53% (2030), 56% (2050) and 65% (2100) of the whole area of the Mekong Delta. For Ben Tre province, the results of the assessment of the impact of salinity intrusion in the future, so that, in 2030, according to the average scenario RCP4.5, with salinity over 25 ‰ have about 35 thousand ha (accounting for 0 ,93%) of shrimp land is affected and more than 45,000 ha of paddy land will be affected by the salinity over 4‰ (accounting for nearly 0.99% of the province's paddy land area).