IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INUNDATION IN NAM DINH CITY

Abstract

One of the impacts of climate change is the increase in flooding level that causes serious damages to people and property, especially in urban areas. Cities, where having high density of population and concentrating important activities of economy as well as the centers of politic, culture and economic, are more prone to be vulnerable to society, economic, environment, infrastructures, to name but a few; therefore, it is necessary to assess the impacts of climate change on urban flooding. The assessment will be the base that supports managers to make decisions related to climate change adaptation and helps planners to have a clear overview about the impacts of climate change on urban areas. This article shows results of the assessment of climate change impacts on flooding in Nam Dinh city. By using MIKE URBAN, MIKE21, and MIKE FLOOD models, the study created flooding maps of 10% design rainfall for the baseline period (1986-2005) and for three future periods (2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results show that the flooding level in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will increase and be higher than that in baseline scenario, of which the level of RCP8.5 scenario will cause larger urban flooding in the last two periods.