PROJECTED TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL CHANGES IN SOUTHEAST-ASIA AND VIETNAM BASED ON THE SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA MULTI-MODEL EXPERIMENTS

Abstract

This study investigates the temperature and rainfall changes by the mid-century (2046-2065) and by the end of the 21^st century (2080-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios over Southeast Asia (SEA) and Viet Nam. The ensemble experiment used in the study was averaged from six regional climate downscaling experiments resulted from the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Results showed that the projected temperature increment in SEA ranged from 2.5 to 4.6^oC and the projected rainfall decreased by up to -30% by the end of the century under the RCP8.5, compared to the baseline period of 1986-2005. The areas higher than latitude 15N had higher temperature increases.