EVALUATION OF RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE SOUTH OF VIET NAM IMPLIMENTED BY USING RAMS MODEL

  • Cong Thanh, Le Duy Manh, Vu Van Thang
Keywords: Rainfall forecast, RAMS model, verification, BIAS correction.

Abstract

In this study, we assess the quality of rainfall forecast using the RAMS model for the south of Viet Nam in the six months of the rainy season in three years from 2014 to 2016. Besides, the BIAS correction method is used for model’s forecast results in 2016. Our results show that the RAMS model is good at forecasting rainfall quantity and pretty good at forecasting light and heavy rainfall areas. However, the model does not forecast well for moderate rainfall areas. The results of forecasting rainfall quantity after BIAS correction are significantly improved. The best ME index after correction is 0.15 and the best RMSE index is 15.63mm. The results of this study can help the forecaster get more information to predict rainfall using numerical model for the south of Viet Nam in the future.

điểm /   đánh giá
Published
2021-05-27
Issue
No. 13 (2020): JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
Section
ARTICLES