FORECASTING THE OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS IN THE BIEN DONG SEA USING THE CLASSIFICATION METHOD

Abstract

In this study, we conducted to construct classification function equation based on the GFS data of the NCEP with 30 cases of tropical depressions formed in the Bien Dong Sea in the period of 2011-2017. The results have constructed the equations of classification function for forecasting the formation of tropical depressions after 24 hours and after 48 hours. For individual equations, accurate result is about 60 to 80%. When combining the 2 equations, all the test cases are forecasted. Position of misconfiguration is about 70km. The results of this study can be used to forecast the formation of tropical depressions in the Bien Dong Sea.