CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS AND PROJECTION FOR QUANG TRI PROVINCE

Abstract

The paper studies past and projected fututure climate changes for Quang Tri province. Temperature and rainfall data from 3 observation stations in the period of 1980-2018 and from the latest climate change scenarios published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2016 are used for study purposes. The results show that during the period 1980-2018, the annual average temperature increased approximately by 0.2^oC/decade at Khe Sanh and had unclear trends at Con Co, Dong Ha; annual rainfall tended to be not clear all over the province. Compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), annual mean temperatures are projected to increase commonly by 1.4 to 1.5^oC in the middle of the century and by 1.7 to 2.0^oC in the end of the century under the RCP4.5 scenario; by 1.7 to 1.9^oC in the middle of the century and by 3.3 to 3.5^oC in the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Annual rainfall is expected to increase by 10 to 20% in the mid-century and by 20 to 25% in the end-21^st century under the RCP4.5; rise by 10 to 20% preriods of the 21^st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The temperature and precipitation extremes are projected to raise in the 21^st century under both scenarios.