TÁC ĐỘNG TÍCH CỰC TỪ XUẤT KHẨU HÀNG HÓA TỚI TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ CỦA VIỆT NAM

Abstract

The article uses an autoregressive model with a lagged distribution on a set of data collected in the period 1996-2019 (including GDP and the value of Vietnam's goods exports) from the World Bank source to show the positive impact of commodity exports on economic growth of Vietnam. This result affirms that the theory of economic growth based on export is correct in the case of Vietnam. Specifically, in the short term and in the research period, the
previous year's GDP increase will stimulate the next year's GDP to increase, and at the same time, the export value in the year has a positive contribution to that year's GDP. In addition, the study also shows that there exists a positive long-run equilibrium relationship between commodity exports and Vietnam's economic growth.