Nonstationary extreme value analysis for estimation of design rainfall in Ho Chi Minh city

Abstract

In Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), heavy rainfall, which is considered as a main cause of inundation, witnessed an increase in frequency and magnitude in last few decades. Although nonstationarity in extreme rainfall has been proved in many places of the world, research into nonstationarity feature in extreme rainfall in HCMC has not been paid attention thoroughly. In this study, the extreme rainfall timeseries is modelled under nonstationary condition. The results show that the increasing trend has been found in extreme rainfall data of Tan Son Hoa station over the period of 1982-2018. Besides, the design rainfall estimates under the stationary condition are lower than those under the nonstationary condition in the study area.