Application of Grey forecasting model to estimate the cargo throughput in Vietnam seaport

Abstract

The study uses the GM (1,1) model and the DGM (1,1) model to forecast the cargo throughput in Vietnam seaports and compares the forecasting results between the two models to select the better model with the most accurate forecasting results. The forecasting value from 2024 to 2030 was conducted based on the annual data set from 2015 to 2023 collected from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The research results show that both models are suitable in this situation. However, the GM (1,1) model is more accurate than the DGM (1,1) model with an accuracy of 95%. Therefore, the GM (1,1) model is proposed to forecast the cargo throughput at Vietnam seaports the next time. This result is also a scientific basis for planners, investors, and the Government to have the basis to strengthen the inspection and operation activities and to make appropriate policies for the construction of seaport infrastructure in Vietnam. In addition, the forecast will help port managers to plan and make appropriate plans for seaports.