APPLYING THE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (VAR) MODEL TO QUANTIFY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROWTH AND EXPORT VARIABLES IN VIETNAM DURING THE PERIOD FROM 2000 TO 2018

Abstract

The paper aims to determine the relationship between two important economic variables, exports (EX) and growth (GROWTH) in Vietnam, based on data collected by the author from the 1st quarter of 2000 to the 4th quarter of 2018. The author applied the VAR model for analysis and the results showed that there is a causal relationship of EX to GROWTH but the opposite effect from GROWTH to EX variables is not really clear. At the same time, exports and economic growth are also affected by the shocks themselves in the past. The result of the paper is a basis to help managers, policy makers and researchers to have clear outlook the relationship between the two variables and thereby have appropriate policies to boost the economy growth as well as opening up further research.