Evaluating Bankruptcy Risk of Banks Listed in Viet Nam Stock Exchange Using Altman Z Score Model

Abstract

     Evaluating financial health of commercial bank system is a key factor in risk management and economic forecast because it is a capital cycle of economy. This article used statistical description to evaluate fininancial situation of banks listed in Viet Nam stock exchange via asset growth, credit growth and earnings after tax as well as bad debt rate - factors significantly influencing banks’ performances. Then, Altman Z’’ score was used to forecast bankruptcy possibility of Viet Nam commercial bank system via financial reports of 39 commercial banks in the 2008- 2013 period. The results show that Z’’ was in the safe range, volatile in the given period and signigficantly different by capital size. The 2 groups with highest and smallest capital size have Z’’ which is higher than that of the 2 others.