Building and Applying The Z- Score Model in Risk Management of Poultry Production Farm in Thai Binh Province

Abstract

    Z-score model was well-known as an application for enterprises risk forecasting. Nevertheless, there has been few application and useof Z- score model in agricultural farms, includung animal production farms. The survey was conducted on 220 poultry production farms in Thai Binh province using Principal Component Analysis (CPA) for technical analysis of five basic groups to caculate Z- score model, with the support of SPSS 20.0. The Z- score model was constructed for the poultry production farms in Thai Binh province. Besides, this research has applied the model on a district in the study to calculate the density and zoning. The results showed that 34% of farms were in the healthy zone, 59% in the unclear zone, and 7% in the bankruptcy zone. To reduce the risk of bankruptcy of farms in Thai Binh province, the following measures should be taken: (1) awareness raising about technical ranchers, markets and risks; (2) Self-insurance in the production; (3) Improving accessibility to agricultural insurance in animal stock assurance; and (4) production and consumption linkage to regulate production.