APPLICATION OF THE SUSCEPBIBLE-INFECTED-REMOVED MODEL FOR FORECASTING AND EVALUATING COVID-19 INFECTION IN HANOI

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases has been studied in many fields of
epidemiology, mathematic and statistics… Today, lots of mathematical models
have been used to predict the development of diseases, specifically, the SIR
model - the simplest way to study the transmission process of 3 compartments is
susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R) between individuals. In this model,
the population is divided into compartments and used to predict how epidemics
will grow in current and future times. By using the data on the COVID-19
epidemic that occurred in Hanoi recently, we can create an SIR model describing
the possibility of disease transmission. Hence, we can use the policy of social
isolation and means of protection appropriately to prevent the spread of the
COVID-19 epidemic in the community.