Research on impact of climate change on design flood in river basins in Binh Dinh province

Abstract

    Climate change will have the big impact to heavy rainfall, which causes the changing of magnitudeof flood, especially design flood. Many studies on impacts of climate change to design flood havebeen done but rare researches focus on the changing of peak flood in space scale at different returnperiods. This research is to study the impacts of climate change to design peak flood using fourdifferent regional climate models (RCM) in river basins in Binh Dinh province. The area waschosen because the variation of precipitation is high in space scale and there are many reservoirswhich have been operating in this region. Bias correction procedure is applied in order to correctthe simulation of rainfall and temperature from RCM. SWAT model is used to simulate runoff fromrainfall. The results of changing in magnitude of peak flood are presented as maps. In general,magnitude of design peak flood tends to increase from 2-5% in most areas of Binh Dinh provincein the 2020-2045 period, but about 30-50% of areas tend to decrease in the 2060-2085 period. Itcan be said that the uncertainty in estimating of changing peak flood in future is high and itdepends on the climate change scenarios, climate models...