The probability of overflowing of the Red river dyke in the context of climate change

Abstract

   The paper presents the overflowing analysis results of the Red River dike (the right side) from Son Tay to Phu Xuyen following the conventional and the reliability-based approach in the context of climate change and sea level raise. The conventional approach shows the crest level of dike is higher than river flood water level (the dike is safe in term of overflowing) while the reliabilitybased approach estimates the probability of overflowing is relatively high from 0,02 upto 9,38%. It is expected that, the results will be good references for officer and engineer in ther dike engineering field.