The Real Effective Exchange Rate and Vietnamese Trade Performance in the Period 1992-2014

  • Nguyen Tran Phuc

Tóm tắt

This paper investigates whether the conduct of exchange rate policies in Vietnam has been conducive to the preservation of external competitiveness over the 1992-2014 period. Two main analysis methods are employed: descriptive analysis and econometric analysis. The co-integration technique is applied to investigate the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and trade performance. The results of the econometric analysis indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between REER and exports as well as imports. In the meantime, REER generally showed an appreciating trend. This suggests that the conduct of exchange rate policies tended to contribute to the deterioration in the country’s external competitiveness over the studied period, thus leading to the persistent trade deficit in the past. Overall, the findings suggest that monitoring the equilibrium real exchange rate and adjusting misalignment in time appears to be a crucial tool for the authorities to ensure the external balance for the economy.
điểm /   đánh giá
Phát hành ngày
2019-07-31
Chuyên mục
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