Relationship between sectoral exports and economic growth - A vector error correction modeling for Vietnamese fishery sector 1997 – 2008

Tóm tắt

Numerous literatures have documented the relationship between exports and economic growth of a nation but not so many on the one between exports of an economic sector and national growth. This paper examines the latter relationship with evidence from fishery exports of Vietnam during 1997 to 2008. The contribution of fishery sector in Vietnamese Gross Domestic Products (GDP) may be mathematically calculated with statistical figures. However, the effects of fishery exports on the economic growth are yet to be thoroughly studied in an econometric approach. An econometric approach with stationary and co-integration tests and vector error correction models used in this study allows forecasting a persistence of the effects of fishery exports on Vietnamese GDP despite of different seasonal business. For the long run estimation, a double increase in national fishery exports revenue would raise the GDP by 7%. This has a great economic meaning in developing process of Vietnamese economy. In reverse direction, Vietnamese fishery exports would increase by 5.2% with a 10% increase in its GDP. Confirming the role of fishery exports in national economic growth, it is necessary for the sector to improve its competitive capacity.